The real oil shock from the Iran war might be just beginning

Strategic oil reserves released by IEA members are nearly exhausted, while refined product shortages—driven by Iranian attacks on Middle East refineries and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refinery infrastructure—are creating four-year-high margins and threatening global supply. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and refined product inventories at 20-year lows, a second oil shock centred on fuel scarcity rather than crude may be imminent.

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