ASML Q2 2026: Sales Growth Flatten, China Concerns Remain — TradingVi…

ASML's Q2 2026 sales growth has slowed to an expected 10% for the full year, with China revenue collapsing from 50% of sales in 2024 to under 20% in H1 2026 due to export restrictions. The proposed US MATCH Act threatens a further 15-20% revenue loss long-term, though short-term Chinese pre-restriction buying could temporarily offset this. If you build chips outside China, ASML is about to have excess capacity and desperate need for new customers—and the US just handed you a two-year window before restrictions lock in. The service business (25% of ASML's margin) is where real money sits once machines ship; that's where you become essential to existing Chinese fabs.