Wire · operational-macro
The real oil shock from the Iran war might be just beginning
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Fusion42 · 22 July 2026 · Fusion42 review
Strategic oil reserves released by IEA members are nearly exhausted, while refined product shortages—driven by Iranian attacks on Middle East refineries and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refinery infrastructure—are creating four-year-high margins and threatening global supply. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and refined product inventories at 20-year lows, a second oil shock centred on fuel scarcity rather than crude may be imminent.
This Wire brief sits within Fusion42's coverage of Energy Storage.
◆ ◆ The Wire takeaway
Refined fuel prices are about to spike harder than crude ever did, and your supply chain costs will follow the tanker shortage, not the oil price. If you move physical goods—food, chemicals, logistics—lock in fuel surcharge contracts now, because refineries can't replace lost capacity for months and inventories are almost gone.
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1 source · 22 Jul 2026
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