Analysis-Big to get bigger: India's UPI fee shift to entrench dominant incumbents

India’s regulators will start allowing merchant fees on UPI transactions over 2,000 rupees from October 15, ending six years of free payments and creating a potential $1.1 billion annual revenue pool mainly captured by PhonePe and Google Pay, which together hold 80% of the market. This shift may enable the dominant incumbents to expand into rural markets while smaller rivals target niche segments, amid concerns about increased market concentration and merchant fee pass-through.

This Wire brief sits within Fusion42's coverage of Fintech, and 13 sources have reported it between 16 Sep 2026 and 29 Sep 2026.